Low-carbon heating predicted to boost revenue

Heat pump installers and heating engineers expect low-carbon heating to become a major revenue stream by the end of this year, according to new data from Nesta.

A Censuswide survey of 200 engineers found a quarter expect low-carbon heating to provide up to 50% of their income, with 70% predicting heat pumps alone will account for 10-50% of their revenue. The shift comes as UK heat pump sales hit record highs in 2025, increasing by 30%, and demand rises amid ongoing energy security concerns due to the conflict in Iran and the Middle East.

According to the survey, 60% of installers rated hands-on exposure – testing kit at wholesalers, observing installs in customers’ homes or fitting systems themselves – as the most effective way to learn before installation. However, government data shows only 27% of newly trained installers complete a heat pump installation within a year of qualifying.

Nesta’s data suggests that engineers who gain practical experience are best positioned to benefit, which is why it is offering support through its Start at Home initiative, designed to help installers build confidence with heat pump installations for customers.

Madeleine Gabriel, who leads Nesta’s Sustainable Future mission, said: “Low-carbon heating is becoming central to how heating engineers make a living, so we need to make it easier for them to get hands-on with the technology, build skills that pay and feel secure as demand grows.

“Our existing heating workforce will help to drive a low-carbon future in homes across the UK but we have to ensure they are well equipped in order for this to happen. Start at Home, which enables heating engineers to fit a government- funded heat pump in their homes, provides precisely this kind of training opportunity.”

Matthew Kemp, an installer at Leaping Hare Renewables in Norfolk, said: “Once you’ve installed a heat pump and seen how it runs day to day, you understand the design and commissioning details in a way a course can’t replicate.

"For experienced heating engineers like myself, as well as the next generation, it offers a great opportunity to upskill and get ready for the growing demand for low-carbon heating."