Future Homes Standard could transform sector

After many years of consultation and industry debate, the long-awaited Future Homes Standard (FHS) was finally published earlier this year. Predicted to be one of the most transformative policies affecting England’s housing and energy sector, low-carbon heating will be the default way to warm new homes.

Overview of the Future Homes Standard

The changes to building regulations will come into force in March 2027, followed by a year-long transitional period. According to the government, this gives developers two years to meet the new standard, so all new homes built after this period will be zero-carbon ready.

“Functional changes will be enacted through building regulations with new versions of Approved Documents L and F,” explains Jeff House, director of external affairs and policy at Baxi. “However, owing to transitional arrangements, March 2028 will be the pivotal moment when change really happens in practice.”

The Standard also includes a new compliant way that homes can connect to low-carbon heat networks as well as a requirement to include a defined amount of on-site generation through solar PV.

According to government estimates, residents could potentially save £830 per year on energy bills, with new build homes emitting 75% less carbon compared to 2013 standards.

“Proposed changes in the FHS will ensure that new homes will be more energy efficient, cutting bills and boosting the nation’s energy security,” says Tamsin Lishman, CEO of Kensa. “The focus on clean home-grown power is clear, with low-carbon heating being a central theme throughout.”

The FHS will require all new homes to have low-carbon heating installed and the highest energy efficiency standards. This will reduce energy bills, reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels, and cut emissions.

It will triple the size of the heat pump market virtually overnight, from 100,000 to 300,000 a year. Confidence in this market growth will unlock investment in heat pump manufacturing and installation supply chains required for the wider decarbonisation of UK homes. These economies of scale will drive down installation costs for both new builds and existing homes.

“We believe that coupling Solar PV and/or battery storage with highly efficient heat pumps is the best path for new homes in terms of lowering consumer energy bills, reducing demand on the grid, and increasing the UK’s energy security,” says Peter Spurway, head of key accounts and strategic partnerships at Viessmann Climate Solutions, commenting on the release of the FHS. “Bringing together solar, heat pumps, battery storage, mechanical ventilation with heat recovery (MVHR) systems and EV charging into a seamless, efficient ecosystem has the potential to unlock significant opportunities for installers.”

The EUA points out that the certainty that the FHS brings is essential for long-term investment, enabling manufacturers and infrastructure providers to move forward with confidence, knowing what government expects of them.

“With clear direction, businesses across the supply chain are better placed to invest in their future,” says Mike Foster, CEO of EUA.

“Drawing a distinction between new-build requirements and those of the retrofit market is key to a sensible home decarbonisation agenda. Fitting a heat pump into a new build is considerably more straightforward than retrofitting an older property with one. The government has clearly recognised this by downgrading the number of retrofitted heat pumps they expect to see. Both these factors should help plumbing and heating engineers work out which bits of the market they may wish to specialise in.”

Installer impact

At a glance, most new homes built under the Future Homes Standard are expected to incorporate low-carbon heating, such as heat pumps, alongside solar PV and other technologies designed to improve energy efficiency and performance. The changes also include the eventual move to the Home Energy Model (HEM) from the Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP) for compliance purposes.

“For heating engineers, the main change will be an effective requirement for low-carbon heating in all new buildings,” says House. “Although not explicit in the text, the target emissions and energy calculation metrics will be such that fossil fuel-based systems will not be compliant. This means heat pumps and low-carbon heat networks will become the norm.”

The regulations amend Part L of the building regulations to create a new functional requirement for on-site renewable electricity generation, and introduce specific requirements around heat pump controls, commissioning, installation quality and the fixing of operational and maintenance information to heat pump systems. Correct commissioning and handover are now more than just good practice; they’re a regulatory expectation.

“The practical implications for plumbing and heating engineers are significant and immediate,” says Nick Houghton-Best, national head of new build at Daikin UK. “New-build sites will increasingly require installers who can design, install and commission heat pumps at scale and proper design, commissioning and handover will be a standard expectation for every installation. The shift is not simply technical; it demands a whole-system understanding looking at integrating heating, hot water, solar technology and building fabric as a complete system, with smarter controls that ensure performance is maintained over the long term.”

Industry opinion

Public perception of low-carbon technology is often led by government action, which so far has not been consistent. Will the FHS go far enough to instil confidence in consumers and are the plans achievable?

“We have long advocated that new buildings should be constructed with low-carbon heat from the outset,” says House. “The real challenge is the retrofit market where we have more than 28 million buildings that will need some kind of intervention to meet the net-zero target. The government has gone from a ‘target’ of 600,000 installations per year by 2028 to a more rational target of 450,000 per year by 2030. With changes to new builds, proposed reforms to Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards (MEES) in the private and social rented sectors, and expanded funding schemes, this seems attainable.”

The recently published impact statement confirms that residential construction is the UK’s second highest-emitting sector, and that it must cut its carbon footprint by 66% by 2040. Heat pumps have been identified as central to achieving that goal and the policy framework is being built accordingly.

“The targets themselves reflect genuine ambition,” says Houghton-Best. “The question is whether the infrastructure around them (consumer confidence and, crucially, installer capacity) is scaling at the same pace. Policy ambition is only meaningful when it can be delivered practically on the ground.”

One area that remains to be resolved is the spark gap (the price difference between gas and electricity). While the European heat pump market is far greater than that of the UK, this can be attributed to the lower cost of electricity on the continent.

As Foster points out: “The overall heat pump targets are lower, reflecting a more realistic view of what is happening in the industry. Prices haven’t fallen by the levels some claimed and running costs are still too high for the majority of UK households.”

Skills gap

Despite the lower target for heat pump installations, the number of engineers who are trained to install and maintain low-temperature heating and hot water systems remains comparatively low, maintaining a significant skills gap.

“The opportunity to close that gap is real, and it sits directly with the engineers and businesses willing to act now,” asserts Houghton-Best. “The target was 450,000 heat pump installations per year by 2030, yet the UK installed just over 125,000 units in 2025 – a record, but well below the trajectory required. Analysis of the MCS database finds there are around 1,300 companies currently certified to install heat pumps, and the industry will need to add roughly 5,000 to 7,000 engineers every year from 2025 to 2035 to meet government targets. The structural challenge is compounded further by an ageing workforce.”

The demand for qualified heat pump installers currently outstrips supply, and the recent extension of the Boiler Upgrade Scheme (BUS) to include air-to-air systems widens the market further still.

“Contractors working in new-build will have been aware of the upcoming changes for some time,” says House. “Again, retrofit will be the area that needs attention. There is some government activity in this area with the Heat Training Grant and a focus on green skills laced throughout the Warm Homes Plan (WHP).”

The majority of Gas Safe-registered engineers already possess the core knowledge, including system design, hydraulics, commissioning and fault finding which are all transferable. Therefore, upskilling is more about building on existing skills rather than starting from scratch.

Government funding has helped remove one of the barriers to upskilling the workforce via fully funded or subsidised training, making it possible to achieve MCS certification, which is essential for accessing the BUS, without significant upfront cost.

“In terms of the government’s methodology for assessing the energy performance of residential buildings, we support much-needed updates to the SAP and the concurrent introduction of its eventual successor, the HEM in 2028,” says Spurway.

“We urge government to widen the scope of technologies which can be modelled within the calculation methodologies, to accelerate their adoption. This will help to ensure that the UK can match energy innovations being realised by other nations.

“Stakeholders providing retrofit measures under the recently announced WHP must be able to model Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) to ensure those at risk of fuel poverty are able to access the most efficient and future-proof technologies. Ultimately, this will also provide the nation with a more sustainable, flexible and resilient energy grid.”

Meeting demand

The FHS has made it clear that the electrification of heat will play an integral role in England reaching net zero targets. It’s therefore important that members of the plumbing and heating industry future-proof their businesses against regulations and focus on upskilling their workforce.

“Upskilling does not require a complete change to how a business operates,” says Houghton-Best. “With the right support in place, the transition can be straightforward. Courses that combine theory with hands-on experience using working systems and which are designed to fit around existing businesses make this transition more accessible than many assume.”

Training facilities that replicate real installation environments will play an important role in building installers’ confidence as they enable them to work on full systems with controls and layouts. This can help to improve first-time outcomes and prepares installers for the practical realities.

Although heat pumps and electrification will play a key role in the future of plumbing and heating engineering, the majority of most installers’ work will still be jobs that involve traditional fossil-fuel heating and hot water systems.

“Some sectors such as new build and rented will move more quickly, however, let us not forget that there are currently 23 million homes in the UK reliant upon natural gas for heating and hot water,” points out House. “This will not change overnight and there will be work in the gas sector for a long while yet.”

Read the government’s amended regulations at: shorturl.at/6YMwb